| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 05 2008 10:54 AM |
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot
|
The 11 am is out...as suggested, Ike is moving south of the projected path at about 260 degrees. Also to be noted, although sheer is supposed to affect Ike for the next 24 hours, it should taper off after that. Also, on the path Ike is projected to take now, the Forecast Discussion from the NHC has stated specifically that the waters are warm and they do not see remnants of cooler water from Hanna being in the area previously.
I'm starting to think the ECMWF model that takes Ike into the same area as Gus is going to be the more accurate model.