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It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high as it digs SW on its east side and how quickly the short wave coming from the west will erode the west side and how deep that will be. I guess the faster Hanna pulls NE will impact how deep the ridge will dig by tending to flatten it out the further north it goes. IKE is located just east of the apex of a very sharp point on that ridge, and the steering just west of that point is definitely wnw. As Hanna pulls out that should make the whole area a little more east to west. That could happen today before IKE actually impacts Cuba. My unskillful observations also suggest that the west side of the high will erode into the middle GOM as the trough approaches from the west. This poses a definite issue for recurvature as it increasingly seems IKE will bypass south Florida. But I am not comforted by that. I don't see IKE as a middle Gulf coast storm but more likely something east of the Mississippi River. This definitely has my attention in west central Florida as there is nothing more ominous than a strong storm being SW of our area with a probability of a future NE track. |