It is simply too early to tell where Ike may end up along the US Gulf Coast. Needless to say, ANY location from Florida to Texas is a possibility. The current NHC track brings Ike into the eastern GOM in four to five days. The margin of error for this time range is significant.

The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. In this case, a severely weakened Ike would probably make it farther west than currently forecast. If Ike remains mostly over open water to the north or south of Cuba, then everything depends on the strength and orientation of the high pressure system to Ike's north. I'm inclined to believe that Ike will pass over, or to the south, of Cuba. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic really seems to be nudging Ike to the SW this morning.