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you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the gfdl and gfs....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs
Absolutely true. Plus, where and how long it goes over Cuba will be a factor. The models continue to wobble, it's almost as if they stay on a certain track long enough for the NHC to believe it, and then they shift. Powerful hurricanes are also more likely to move poleward, which tends to make me reluctant to believe a Houston landfall, but it's just too early to say for sure.
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot