the way it looks right now, the chance of it nailing south florida with a direct hit is preety unlikely. THINGS DO CHANGE as i have specified before. and i agree with bob, while it is se of florida anything is possible and until it gets into the gulf should we breathe easy. however it is not looking like it will effect south florida with a direct hit at the given time. just because we arent in the cone and it isnt going to be a direct hit to south florida doesnt mean we wont get effected either. if this thing wobbles more north and it passes in between the keys and cuba, then south west and south east florida will experience some preety nasty weather. strong wind gusts, squally rains etc.