danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071430.shtml

Key West Hurricane Local Statement:
......PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center