Personally, I believe anything beyond 48 hours right now is a crap shoot. About all I think can be said with a standard deviation of confidence is that Ike will soon ht Cuba and then later will emerge somewhere in the GOM. I seriously question any models ability to accurately forecast how Ike will be affected by its time over Cuba, where it will come out and what kind of condition it will be in. I can easily see how Ike could end up on the south side of Cuba, head for the Yucatan and then head west toward somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Where when and how Ike emerges as it departs Cuba will be key.

At the 120 hr point the models are quite divergent, forecasting landfall from somewhere near Corpus to as far east as Apalachicola. Being just 12 miles inland south of Houston I will be watching every move carefully. But at this time it is way too early to get excited about a particular landfall possibility.