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There's certainly a jog north. The visible sat shows it moved from about 21.0 °N at 15:15 to about 21..2 °N at 19:45. Cuban radar shows the eye well and position is about 21.2 °N at 19:30. The last discussion forecast movement from 21.0 N at 15:00Z to 20.9 at 00 Z. We'll need to wait and see if this is a rel move or just a temporary jog. For anyone interested the Cuban station at Hologuin is showing a nice image.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES
We're running a long term cuban radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?52 there too, I don't think it would be northwest. It's a good set up for the general wobble wars though. I'm thinking its going to move more west than anything and not really veer too much one way or the other.
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot