| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 10:08 AM |
|
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up
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I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.
But those 4 are the Big Dogs of the season so far.
And Ike will not follow Gustav's track. Therefore Ike will go in East of Gustav.
Frederic 1979 or Elena 1985.
As the SciGuy, Houston Chronicle points out:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/
Ike will now miss both Mountain Ranges in Cuba.
and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.
If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.
The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.