| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 10:40 AM |
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up
|
Quote:
...and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.
If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.
The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.
That's right, it won't be magic. Think of it as turbulence, like behind a tractor/trailer. AAMOF watch Gustav's "track" erupt in rain
as Ike nears it. And, yes cutting across Gustav is very reasonable, except the 4 Models have Ike veering into LA. And, again, Ike won't cross Gustav and then veer into Lake Charles. The turn will come after Ike crosses Fay's track and before it reaches Gustav's.
Ike has already moved out of the NHC's 800 Advisory by continuing West. Just beginning to come out into the Caribbean. It should turn w/in hours.
IMHO. Ike should be turning as it gets into water.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
Go Hogs!