The models still disagree on their individual tracks, but there seems to be good agreement on the general scenario of Ike taking a "stair-step" path into the Gulf and eventually into the western Gulf Coast. Ike is currently moving west, but should turn more to the NW tonight and tomorrow as a shortwave slightly weakens the ridge to the north. When that shortwave moves away, the ridge will build back and Ike should turn back to the west. Finally, another trough approaching the central and southern Plains in 4-5 days should weaken the ridge again, causing another (and presumably final) turn to the NW and N.

If that scenario holds, that will mean at least 2 and maybe 3 changes in direction for Ike before final landfall, which obviously makes the track forecast complicated and uncertain. The 12Z GFS eventually tracks Ike into the south TX coast before it gets pulled to the north, while the 12Z GFDL and HWRF turn Ike to the NW over the Gulf before reaching the coast, resulting in landfall on the upper TX coast. The 12Z ECMWF is in between with landfall over the middle TX coast.

It looks like conditions will be very favorable for intensification over the Gulf, but Ike seems to have lost its inner core and currently seems to be more of a very large tropical storm than a hurricane right now. It will need to re-establish its inner core to take advantage of conditions over the Gulf. Ike's state of organization when it approaches the loop current in the south central Gulf will be crucial in determining how strong it will get.