hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:14 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It is interesting to see how much of a consensus there is within the two different tracking groups right now.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF are all aiming straight at Houston, whereas the NGFDL, UKMET, and GFS have Ike aimed straight at Corpus Christi.

The interesting thing is, the three models aimed further south, I believe, took this route due to Ikes current Westerly jog instead of the originally forecasted NW movement by now. However, if you look at the GFDL, and HWRF models on this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

They had predicted this Westerly jog with their current track.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center