hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 08:14 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

It is interesting to see how much of a consensus there is within the two different tracking groups right now.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF are all aiming straight at Houston, whereas the NGFDL, UKMET, and GFS have Ike aimed straight at Corpus Christi.

The interesting thing is, the three models aimed further south, I believe, took this route due to Ikes current Westerly jog instead of the originally forecasted NW movement by now. However, if you look at the GFDL, and HWRF models on this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

They had predicted this Westerly jog with their current track.


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