JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 08 2008 08:29 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The GFDL and at times the UKMET has been doing pretty good with Ike, so take a look at those. Now with that said - every single time the track updates its SW of where the NHC projected. Just the other day they had the storm tracking thru the Keys now its SOUTH of Cuba. So at this point whatever they put up as a track I bet its goes south of that. Amazing how they can be right on the money with Gustav at 5 days, yet so far off with this storm. Also goes to show why you need to watch these things and not panic (or relax) just because you are (or are NOT) in the 5 day cone... just too many variables that far out to forecast landfall.


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