This may or may not be the same situation, but I remember with Gustav, just a little while before he came across the western end of Cuba, the models started showing a shift in track a little more to the west (western LA/East Texas area) but the NHC was hesitant to shift their track. They kept saying in the forecast discussions that they were keeping their track to the East of the consensus. Now the models are showing a little further South on some of them, and the NHC only slightly moved their track and is saying they are keeping their track to the north side of the consensus...I guess we'll see after Ike crosses Western Cuba if the NHC keeps their track steady and if the models shift back.