Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 10:43 AM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

I would not be surprised to see the model consensus bounce back to the north a little bit. Of the global models, the GFS and NOGAPS show little or no interaction with the approaching trough in 3-4 days, while the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models do show some interaction, causing a somewhat further north track. The ECMWF is the best model overall, so I would hesitate to pick against it if it came to that. We'll see if there is any better model consensus among the global models today.


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