The 5pm EDT update is out

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

So they have shifted the landfall point very close to San Antonio Bay, or close to Port Lavaca, and according to the forecast this is conservative compared to the rest of the models. Basically they are following the ECMWF model exactly now, since it has been accurate so far on Ike.

There are also extremely favorable winds and atleast 3 warm eddies that he is supposed to pass near or through on his current track. The GFDL and HWRF intensity models have Ike reaching cat4 by landfall. His speed has slowed to 10mph, the speed over the next 48 hours is very important to the forecast track. In other words, the slower Ike goes, the further away from shore he will turn North.