Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 09 2008 07:34 PM
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up

The inner core is still there, but it is not in good shape at the moment. The convection is weak and recon shows the winds in the inner core are actually weaker than the winds further removed from the center in an outer wind maximum. In its present state of organization, it is not likely to rapidly intensify. It may rapidly intensify at some point in the future, but there could be a rather slow period of reorganization first before it is able to take advantage of the favorable environment in the Gulf.

There is some very dry air apparent on the water vapor image over the central Gulf, but the size of Ike's circulation should keep the interior of the storm relatively insulated from it.



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