The appearance of the turn before landfall is simply a matter of connecting the dots on 12 hr points. If you look at the discussion carefully the forecasters note that most models have the turn coming after landfall. Selfishly, for me this would be a good thing.

The latest run on HWRF appears to have dropped back south and delayed the turn as well. It is beginning to look like the NHC is again on the north edge of model consensus.

Locally, this is a tough call. We evacuated from Rita 36 hours before landfall as the forecast track at that time was about as close to directly over our head as could be determined. At that time they were still saying Cat 4, maybe 5. Twelve hours later they moved the track 60 miles east, and 12 hours after that another 60 miles east. If Ike were to move 100 - 120 miles east in the last 36 hours it could be real interesting for our area. The good news if there is any is the Cat 2 outlook now. The bad news is the potential for stronger.

The mandatory evacuations for the low-lying coastal towns, like 10-12 miles away, started here this morning, with voluntary for the remainder of the county. It's already starting to be a zoo as folks react. Schools closed for the rest of the week as we found out this morning at 6:30 am.