The model that still concerns me for your/my area is the ECMWF model. Even the NHC commented on how accurate it has been with Ike and it still has it coming up kind of the same path as Alicia back in 1983, again basically over your head there in Lake Jackson. Basically it agrees with the NHC path, except it has it making a much sharper north turn as it gets to the coast line. The models all take a pretty good divergence at 36 hours, and I think your example of Rita is a great one to show just how easy it is for things to change at the last minute.

The 1pm CDT update will be a good gauge at the speed and track, one of the tracking points on the NOAA radar is set for that time today, so we will be able to see if Ike has varied his speed or track any at that point.