hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 10 2008 12:13 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Quote:

Quote:

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.




And once Ike starts bending to the N, he won't stop. And if Ike's turning on Friday AM, why will
it turn to the W on Thurs AM?

If I lived in Houston I would be scheduling a long weekend starting this PM.




I agree with you completely...I'm hoping my work shuts down for Friday so I can ship my family over to San Antonio to stay with family. My boss and I have made a bet...if we work on Friday, I owe him lunch

Wow Ike has taken a nice little N wobble...the 1pm CDT update I think is going to be very interesting for the Upper TX coast

Very interesting look at the steering currents here...if you step through the last couple of slides you can see how close Ike is to reaching the weakness (edge) of the ridge to it's north...I am definitely predicting a more northerly track than the NHC is so far.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html



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