1pm CDT is out...Ike is at 100mph winds now, he's looking much healthier on the sat's now. The track is shifted north again, from San Antonio Bay to Matagorda Bay near Port Lavaca. This next 12 hours or so is going to be very interesting...

Thought this was interesting from a probability standpoint...notice that from just south of Corpus all the way up to the Houston area all have the exact same probability of having 50 knot winds....this thing is still so wide open!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151325.shtml?50wind120#contents

The HWRF 12z is out now also, and while not as pronounced of a move as the GFDL, it still shifted a little north, just above the NHC track.