| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 10 2008 02:38 PM |
|
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?
|
Quote:
IKE is on a path to near Corpus Christi still. My idea has been from Brownsville-Corpus Christi, and now since its 2.5 days out its time to make it official with the data I see from Models, etc. My forecast is slightly further up from just south of Corpus Christi (near Santa)-Matagorda TX. The ridge over Mexico is having a hard time adjusting eastward and will probably not be strong enough to extend fully with the ridging over the northern gulf coast. This will cause IKE to move more WNW instead of almost due west. Landfall late Friday night or Saturday morning as a Cat 3 is still expected. I'm still 50-50 on Houston getting TS force winds, but they should get gusts over that.
BTW as a joke the GFDL has IKE imbedding with a cold front and strengthening near Lake Erie as a Cat 2... How funny is that. (Feedback problems on IKE)
Sorry I'm a little confused, matagorda is north of corpus...I think you meant to leave out the highlighted part up above? And I agree with your placement, possibly even a little further up, but I don't think it will further south than that.
Just another data point, Ike's current track has his eye following an 86* eddy almost all the way to the coast...that's alot of warm water for him to have access too.