The intensity forecast for Ike is even less straight-forward than the track forecast. Ike continues to have a very large, broad, and atypical circulation for a hurricane, with recon recently finding hurricane force winds over 100 miles from the center (those winds being stronger than any winds near the center). Ike also appears to be entraining some mid-level dry air into its circulation from the surrounding environment.

The good news is that Ike is very unlikely to rapidly intensify in its current state of organization. Storms like this seem to have a tough time consolidating after becoming "unwound" like Ike did over Cuba. Fitful bursts of modest intensification should be the case in the short term. If Ike can overcome the mid-level dry air surrounding it, upper-level winds and SSTs may be favorable enough for Ike to eventually consolidate into more of a classic hurricane.

The bad news about Ike's size is that. even if it stays as broad and unfocused as it is now, a very large area could end up being affected by hurricane-force winds and storm surge, much more than you would expect with a typical hurricane.