http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

If you go there and turn on the tracking points and the NWS Fronts, you can see the weakness starting to build in the ridge off to the NW of Houston...

Just a little further explanation, in case I wasn't clear (someone wrote and asked me about it

)

The blue and red ridge line that appears on that map when you turn on the NWS Fronts check box, had previously been completely horizontal (parallel with the gulf coast), whereas now you can see the "hump" in it over East TX where the trough is starting to create the weakness that Ike should turn north into.

Also, the 7pm CDT is out and Ike is holding strong at 100mph, with a very low pressure level (947mb). There are now 4 models pointing right at the Houston/Galveston area, including the GFDL. We'll see if this trend holds through the night or if it changes again by morning