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The model roundup this morning is interesting, the GFS takes it through the Bahamas on the 7th, and into South Florida (Broward or Dade ish) the following day, the GFDL is more westward, missing Puerto Rico to the north and then just north of the Turks into the Central Bahamas. HRWF is further north and away from the Bahamas. Since the storm has moved a bit more west than expected, it may force Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Puerto Rico. It likely will be an interesting next few days to watch. The spread is a bit much. It's also possible Erika falls apart, but with that much convection to the east, I wouldn't count on it. It's similar to Chris from 3 years ago. But Chris "split apart" after it got west of the Leewards. |