The 18Z GFDL. is moving closer to Cuba in the longer term, which is more usual for these type of storms, either they crash into Central America and die, or skirt along the coast and make it east of the Yucatan, a bit weaker. If it stays on the eastern edge of Honduras then it will pass along more flat terrain, west into Honduras gets into some fairly rugged mountains, which would tear up the storm.

The GFDL here somehow keeps it offshore, and s a bit nuts with intensity (on the high side), so I'm not sure I'd take much stock on this run.