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It appears 93L is under a developing high pressure ridge. There is a very favorable outflow situation at the upper levels. I can not see any low level cyclonic turning which in the short run may help keep any dry air from the South American continent from getting into the tropical wave. I can't see anything happening tonight or early tomorrow; but tomorrow night we may see a depression begin to form. Down the road things look favorable with little shear; however, it is still June albeit late June and the likelehood of a hurricane tracking from a depression in the Central Carribean to the GOM is not really very high. Things can change quickly this time of the year and the subtropical jet could still be a factor late in the week. as what I think will be TS Alex passes West of Jamaica. The set up looks good, but it's still June. |