stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jun 21 2010 05:07 PM
Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge

It appears 93L is under a developing high pressure ridge. There is a very favorable outflow situation at the upper levels.

I can not see any low level cyclonic turning which in the short run may help keep any dry air from the South American continent from getting into the tropical wave.

I can't see anything happening tonight or early tomorrow; but tomorrow night we may see a depression begin to form.

Down the road things look favorable with little shear; however, it is still June albeit late June and the likelehood of a hurricane tracking from a depression in the Central Carribean to the GOM is not really very high. Things can change quickly this time of the year and the subtropical jet could still be a factor late in the week. as what I think will be TS Alex passes West of Jamaica.

The set up looks good, but it's still June.