The first GFDL run of 93L is out, and it seems it has initialized it a bit too far north. Most of the models are suspect in this area. I'm sticking to the more westerly motion now. I'm really interested in seeing the REcon on Wednesday, if it stays like this through tomorrow I am sure they will run the mission..

If more models move to the north, especially after recon, you have extremely warm temperatures in the gulf to feed the storm, only relying on shear at other factors to keep development out. The jet still implies further west at the time, but confidence is low.

One way out there suggestion is that it crosses or clips the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche and drifts north into the Gulf.

There is a real chance too, that if it approached the western Caribbean in good enough condition, that it could intensify somewhat rapidly there.