The GFDL being "too far north" is somewhat concerning to me... since it actually appears to put the system EAST of me in the long long term now. Swing it a bit south, and it paints a nice ugly bullseye on me, doesn't it?

Anything that gets into the Gulf is going to be a DISASTER, whereever it eventually ends up. I don't mean in terms of intensity, although the water is HOT out there, climatology not withstanding. The oil is what is going to make it a sticky situation (pun intended).

My gut tells me that 93L develops and follows a classic Yucatan Channel track, but once it gets into the Gulf, I don't even want to speculate at this point!