You're correct, GFS has it plotted near the FL coast. The feature to the left is the GFS initializing an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and closing it off in about 72 hours which I believe is why it has Alex near FL on day 5. I spoke of this in the lounge; we cannot dismiss the shear that is currently near 22N latitude stretching from west to east. For the moment, TD1/Alex won't survive the track into the GOM in the here and now. Don't get me wrong it will enter the GOM but as a shallow system. None of the models are taking this system to hurricane strength other than the GFDL. A track to the west of the spill is not in the best interest of all concerned; a track towards FL while it will freak the daylights out of everybody isn't a bad thing for the oil on the surface given the winds ahead of the storm and a trajectory towards FL...initially they would be from the east but eventually a FL landfall would allow winds to back (counter clock) from east to northeast to north to northwest. A TX or TX/LA approach will initiate a fetch of south and southeast winds and some piling of water into all points east...assuming Alex is of any significance in development.