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I think what we have to remember is that the percentages is a predictive thing vs looking at it and saying "I see a CDO" and tho weak looking, many storms have problems pulling it together with weak upper level lows and proximity to land and then over the warm water of the Bahamas find their legs... vorticity is showing up nicely and would say the chances are going up by the hour...or six hour period jeanne/frances sort of storms show how much a storm can develop close in... just to name a few |