Okay...we know it's been a bust up to now...TUTT and TUTT lows everywhere again this year and like last year more fizzle than bang. Took a look at models and discussions and a cold front...a dry front for we southerners is expected to drop in for the weekend and set up either along the GOM coast or slightly south where both the GFS and ECMWF have a low expected to develop along the front. Current thinking is the GFS is way overblown and the ECMWF has a weak low which mets favor. There is considerable dry Saharan air affecting a good chunk of the Atlantic Ocean and a deep upper low over the Central Atlantic with extending trough southwest in a curve all the way back through the Caribbean and stops near Yucatan...Shear analysis - 30 to 40 knot gradient winds from the GOM extending NE along the Atlantic coast; upper ridge over the Eastern US.

Patience..Patience...Patience...