It's not just based on the model, but the pattern in this case. The trends have been markedly toward the west, and the setup with Earl and Danielle looks to be strengthening the ridge. In historical context, the Euro model has handled this better than most. This is where that is coming from. Do expect what the link shows to verify? No, but I do know the trends are leaning that direction.

Lounge is for this type of discussion. Odds right now are about 50/50 on recurve. We have a week to watch this one, but I know the impact of this model is right after labor day, which may cause a few people to balk on plans. But don't until this has formed, and the trend persists. It is also possibly that this may move even further west/south and rake the islands too.