Interesting to see that NHC has up'd 95L to 60% ( with surface obs to support forecast ), yet morning satellite would seem to indicate that no significant consolidation has occurred overnight, with this fairly large and broad low to mid level circulation. Given that the wave itself is moving along, and proximity to South America is at least temporarily preventing ideal surface convergence, a less developed system would typically continue to briskly move along with the lower level flow ( BAMS ) and be less apt to gain latitude in the very near term. These factors may be indicative of this morning's 12Z model runs seemingly more convergent towards the west. Even if a broad circulation does in fact exist, limited surface obs indicating west winds might indicate that a fairly well identified circulation still remains just above the surface. Last nights Euro though still attempting to eventually lift a broad system northward into the Southeast Gulf, has backed off the prior run's more intense modeling. Should development be delayed, this could play out like many late season monsoon troughs that often develop over Central America ( borne from either Pacific or Atlantic origin ) and only slowly lift poleward - all the while only slowly developing given the obvious land interaction. Such systems are capable of tremendous flooding over Central America, but by the time they lift northward into the Gulf the same steering conditions finally lifting the system northward, is also impairing increasing S.W. shear. Whether or not a well developed 95L does eventually lift out of the W. Caribbean, increased land interaction would not only hasten localized flooding conditions over Central America, but perhaps also develop into a significant rain event for parts of Western Cuba and Florida.

(Please keep long range assessments in the Forecast Lounge.)