What I'm seeing is 3 of 14 models have it as over water at 120 hrs. If it is over water at that point it's a crap shoot, and I'll be stocked up and ready to bolt up I-75...

Well if it's over the Bay of Campeche I worry a bit less.

We really have to look for an excess northerly component to the overal storm motion as it has a relatively rapid recurve, or just a more rapid onset of a less severe recurve. Either way, more northerly motion for the next 30 hours increases the time this storm avoids land, and the chances it misses land totally before getting caught up by the next trough that digs in...where this thing could be in 120 hours, and the steering currents it'll possibly not have, makes me a little nervous living near Tampa.