(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2010 01:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge


Is this the potential second system that some of the models are trying to show?

Yep, my thoughts exactly. Of course the convection in the S. Central Caribbean is firing up nicely, but over the last few frames, I've noticed what I thought was actually a small area of turning ( mid level ? ) right on or just inside the coastline of Northeastern Venezuela. Either way, the spacing would seem more or less probable for whatever wave that came after Matthew, might be near this longitude. It would be pretty odd to see "our side of the world", that quickly develop a 2nd tropical cyclone - that fast. This would seem to fit the GFS's recent days of runs insistence of a 2nd low forming in relative close proximity to Matthew ( obviously much closer had Matthew stalled off the C. America coastline ).

With the recent global model's insistence I'm nearly convinced at this point that we'll soon see Nicole emerge from the Caribbean. A new system could of course just as easily be farther south than where the Euro/GFS solutions were indicating that Matthew might strike South Florida ( from Yucatan area ). Should newly developed cyclogenesis truly occur, but perhaps south ( or well south ) of 20 latitude, than it would seem clear that the impact of such timing and steering might render the current Euro/GFS solution of a South Florida impact to be "bogus". It remains to be seen if such a threat might once again exist next week, or it that threat might be placed elsewhere altogether.

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