This is the problem with Matthew. Honduras is not flat except along the coast; it's mountainous. Where the shades of grey begin are when Matthew's mid level center decouples from it's surface and low level center. The mid level center should continue west and possibly emerge on the Pacific side. It is the low level center and where it goes that decide if it's Matthew that re-emerges into the Caribbean, a combination of both systems; Matthew's low level circulation and the disturbance farther to the east depicted on satellite and models up to 500 millibars. I poured over the 12Z package today and I think it will be Nicole, not Matthew. Whatever develops is likely to strike the US given the pattern shift and Typhoon Malakas becoming a powerful post-Tropical system in the Gulf of Alaska where a formidable system is now. The downstream amplification of the W US ridge and downstream cutoff low should pull Nicole poleward and for the moment the models are over the place on position including the GFS and a strike on the FL panhandle in 8 days....that's a long way off between now and then. The ECMWF suggests it's Matthew that will strike FL in 6 days. I share Thunderbird12's reasoning; I can't dismiss the real possibility that this system may very well be subtropical or post-Tropical given the synoptic features that will be in play given the depth of the cutoff low over the Mid-South late this weekend and early next week. Initially it is expected to move fairly slow across the South before lifting NE.