A weak low pressure system is evident in the western Caribbean Sea well to the southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, near 18.4N 84.6W at 26/18Z. Most of the convection is located well to the east of the center. The system is currently moving to the northwest, however as it develops better structure upper level winds should prompt more of a northward motion toward western Cuba. The system is under northwesterly windshear so only slow development seems reasonable and initially the system could take on more of a subtropical appearance. SSTs in the area are about 28.5C. Since the system appears rather weak, the current center may only be transient in nature.

Some of the models move a moderate system out of the western Caribbean Sea northward across western Cuba on Tuesday, over south Florida on Wednesday and off the Florida east coast on Thursday. Given the slow evolution of this system, while the track seems reasonable, the timing is still subject to reconsideration. If the system moves slower, a stronger system could develop. At this time there are no real indicators that point to the development of a strong cyclone and over the past 24 hours most of the models have backed off on intensity. Since the timeframe for any necessary preparation is only a few days away, this potential development area needs to be monitored closely by residents in the Yucatan, western Cuba and southern Florida.
ED