Well, it would appear to indicate that 99L has enough depth that the shallow/mid level steering is not primarily steering current motion. Those models currently indicate a more S.W. motion, yet it has managed to drift north instead. In fact near term ( or perhaps longer term also ), motion may very well prove to be an effect of its own further deepening and developing. Certainly appears that 99L is getting its act together; low and mid level convergence appears to continue to increase. Perhaps a slight bit of SW shear towards its western quadrant. Right now, it would seem hard to argue against the BAMD for its future motion. Quicker deepening will have Richard likely crossing Cuba and "touring" the N. Atlantic with time. On the other hand, slower strengthening might permit itself to dawdle around long enough, so that ridging building in from the west Gulf ( and/or a skinny ridge re-asserting itself over Cuba, Hispaniola, etc. ), would certainly seem to cause any storm south of C. Cuba a few days out to be pushed back to the west ( or southwest ).

October systems can really have "squirlly motion". Right now, I could easier see motion taking a storm towards the N.E. or S.W., I just can't seem to rationalize how this system would have adequate time to deepen, remain over water, then hang around long enough to eventually be a threat to Florida. Richard ( if it forms ) would need to be still hanging around beyond 132 hours, AND be in a precise position, to end up being in such a position to then move across W. Caribbean and then N.E.'ward across Florida. Thus right now the largest threat would seem to be the risk for torrential flooding for Jamaica, E. Cuba and Haiti.