This morning, Tomas had decoupled with the low level circulation exposed and convection and mid-level vorticity well to the east; in fact, there were two thunderstorm complexes removed from one another and both well removed from the center of circulation..

5 pm ET discussion is out....I'm fine with their thinking.

Excerpt from the 2 pm Tropical Discussion....

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS NDICATE A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR. THE SAME PRODUCT DISPLAYS MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 24N. UPPER LEVEL MODEL DATA INDICATES A 70 KT JET-STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW GULF...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON ISLAND TO MARSH ISLAND RESPECTIVELY. THIS UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCES A SHORTWAVE THAT SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER E TEXAS...EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.