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I've been watching the Blob off and on for a few days. It seems to be ingesting some dry air. And the convection is diminishing in coverage and intensity. Latest Wavewatch model run has winds in the 29-32kt range over the next few hours on both side of the Southern FL Peninsula. They drop off after the 'core' of the winds moves to the NW near Buoy 42003. Seas are forecast to peak at 4-5 meters/ 12-15 feet around Midnight tonight, again in the vicinity of Buoy 42003. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-gmex- TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 225 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012 edited~danielw FARTHER EAST...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA TO HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING OVER A WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING OVER WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LONG FETCH WESTERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH 30-36 HRS. THIS IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HRS. AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS TO EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH AXIS TO REMAIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA WHILE ALSO GRAZING NORTHERN CUBA. AT LOW LEVELS...THE INITIALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA. THIS WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WEAKENS...THE LOW LEVEL/INDUCED TROUGH IS ALSO TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THROUGH 48-60 HRS IT WILL FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. OVER THE BAHAMAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36HRS...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THEREAFTER. ACROSS CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM CONCENTRATING OVER EASTERN CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. I'm not accustomed to the Caribbean Desk giving two separate levels of analysis. Nice! |