Dr Knabb at The Weather Channel has eluded to a Probable False System in the NW Caribbean Sea in the next 10 to 14 days.

The GFS model is trying to forecast a tropical system in the NW Caribbean in the next 10 days. While several of the models have a westward moving low/ trough/ thunderstorm complex in the Western Caribbean at the end of next week. The GFS extended model is trying to 'One Up' the others with a forecast vortice in the area of Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands.

I've looked at several model runs and indeed the signature is indicative of an organized area of thunderstorms. It is forecast to cross Cuba and move toward the Eastern Bahamas before joining another forecast Low off of the Carolina Coast. The two systems then exhibit a "Fujiwara" type effect and move off toward Nova Scotia.

Neither system is forecast below 1004 mb at this time. Rough estimate of 70 mph winds at the maximum.

Now back to ED in the Weather Center.