***SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 25

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.***

Greetings everyone. Looks like NHC is getting bullish on this system (developmentally at least), but not shockingly the models don't have a good handle on this system yet. Can anyone take an educated guess on the upper end this system can obtain based on SST's / climatology?