Thanks for the long discussion. I have a lot of the same questions and thoughts as well, especially on how much El Nino will really affect this season. Timing is everything.

The MJO on the other hand is a more compelling aspect of tropical development as it is here and moving into the Caribbean.

The models have been good at predicting the increased moisture in the Carib now, question remains where it goes and also IF anything develops in the Pacific as that will influence the flow in the Carib.

"difluent conditions" that's funny, I can see it beginning to happen this morning down in the Carib, just where models were hinting at development.

Several models persist in trying to close off something off the SE tip of Florida, others form something elsewhere.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

A lot of talk and a lot of possibilities but we are still in wait and see mode.

MJO is the bird in the hand, what's in the bush is still hard to see.