I see where you're going with the Elena comparison ... however Elena was way later in the year, late August and the water in the Gulf would support that then...not as much now. Anything's possible, or relatively anything this particular year ....however support of a Cat 2 seems weak. That said, Cat 1 Hurricane is possible.

The steering currents are very transitional right now. We are swinging from unseasonably cool to extremely hot, fronts can come down stronger or bomb out during this current weather period.

Climo would say west towards Texas or NW Florida. Tampa is a long shot, but does bear watching.