danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 21 2012 10:29 PM
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge

Yes this is several hours old. But the entire model suite is discussed. Very good Discussion!

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES WITH THE GFS
FORECAST: IS THE PIECEMEAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEN
IN MANY OF THE GFS FORECAST RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS A
FUNCTION OF THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM OR OF
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THE MODEL?

LOOKING BACK AT THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINNING AT 00Z/21...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN THE GFS. FOR THE VALID TIME
25/12Z...
THESE GFS RUNS VARY AS WIDELY AS A CONSOLIDATED 998 MB
LOW NEAR 27N85W TO A MORE STRUNG OUT TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A
1001 MB ATLC LOW NEAR 29N79W THROUGH FL TO 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR
25N85W AND INTO THE SW GULF.
THE NEW 12Z GFS CARRIES THE LOW
ACROSS FL BY THIS TIME...WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
THE ECMWF RUNS VALID AT THE SAME TIME...25/12Z...AGREE ON A LOW
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF SOMEWHERE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W
AND 91W. THE 21/00Z ECMWF HAS STRAYED FROM THE EARLIER RUNS BY
DEEPENING THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY BY THIS TIME. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND THROUGH SUN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW 12Z NOGAPS...CMC...GFS...AND UKMET ARE
SHOWING MORE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THAN THE RUNS AVAILABLE
THIS MORNING. BY 25/12Z THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE IN THE W GULF
AND THE CMC IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH ONLY THE GFS STRUNG
OUT ACROSS FL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FLIP-FLOPPING
GFS...ITS TOUGH TO COUNT OUT THE IDEA OF ENERGY SHEARING NE
ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE LOW. THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO WAS AGREED UPON BY NHC AND HPC DURING THE MEDium Range CONference CALL.
THE 06Z GEFS MEAN HOLDS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF...BUT ALLOWS ENERGY TO PASS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THERE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. THIS WAS
THE PREFERRED SOLutioN FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.



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