The latest CMC and GFS ensembles are keeping the system in the Gulf longer, and missing the front that would kick it over Florida, if that occurs, Northwestern Gulf, Texas would need to watch the closest. The CMC run aggressively develops it as it approaches Houston/Galveston.

Still models in general don't seem to have a good handle on the system, and if this reforms to the northeast of the Yucatan, the models will be off. So this is just one possibility, so the entire Gulf of Mexico still needs to continue watching.