Current speculation, the GFS is closer to target, but not for the usual reasons, more because it looks like the center keeps reforming nearer to the convection, and winds up slipping northeast each time. Model spread is crazy this morning, Mexico to Tampa and all points in between. If the NHC were forced to issue an official forecast now, the TCVN would probably be it, (Near LA, and then slowly eastward along the gulf coast). Thus probably why they mentioning possible watches/warnings along the northern Gulf.

This storm will likely get no stronger than Tropical Storm strength, and some energy/rain may still split off toward the west just to make the euro happy.