cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jun 23 2012 08:06 PM
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge

Recon has determined that the original LLC, and not its satellite eddies, is the primary center. This center, fixed at 25.9N 87.8333W, will probably meander or loop about in the general area, and may yet give way to more reformations.

As of 4PM EDT, recon is now headed into the deep convective leg in the eastern semicircle, where surface observations have occasionally come in today at or above 40MPH, gusting up to about 50+

Despite the fact that the western semicircle is relatively dry, the cyclone will likely be designated Tropical Storm Debby at 5PM. This dryness is mostly the result of ongoing shear being imparted on the cyclone from an upper level low in the northwestern Gulf, making it a sheared tropical cyclone, with some similarities to both subtropical storms and monsoon depressions; not a fully "classic" TC.



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