Glen:

Several models are showing that track. But a couple models are showing an east track. And a couple are showing a north track. NHC had to provide some sort of guidance, and so they had to make an educated pick based on what they new at the time. We will not get "good" model guidance for around 12 hours. The next model run started, in a few hours, will be using the recon ingested data. When that model run is done in 9-12 hours, we should see some convergence in the models.

The only problem is the recon flight data is showing what appear to be multiple LLCs. We do not know which will become dominant, and if the model develops the wrong one, it's track will not match the actual storm path.